New market records and update on US market status

The US markets hit new all time records this past week and breaking new levels.  The US was one of the best countries (some may disagree) to invest in stocks, housing, industry sectors, some commodities, mutual funds, etc, this year.  Below, i have some indices for some countries.  These indices measure or can tell you how well this country did financially and the US is on the green side for 2013.

Japan Nikkei 225                                     51%
United States S&P 500 Index                    29.11%
Global Index GDOW The Global Dow              24.16%

Russia Market Vectors Russia Index ETF       -4.5%

China Shanghai SE Composite Index           -7.4%
Brazil Bovespa Stock Index                        -15.89%
Peru EPU iShares MSCI All Peru Capped         -28.3%

This year was not a good year for emerging markets such as Brazil, Peru, and China.  Although, China's gross domestic product (GDP) has been a whooping 7% or so, their indices has been pretty bad.  The question is, will the emerging markets turn to the upside in 2014?  They can.... but it's not a sure thing.  As the global index, and US is forecast-ed to keep going up, emerging markets may be able to get on the same ride on the way up.  

Now, this bring me to the reason why i'm posting today.  The US markets may keep rising for 2014 all the way.  The Federal Reserve Bank announced tapering last week (reducing bond purchases and other stimulus) at 10B per month.  They gave a date of expiration until Sept/Oct 2014 and as long as the economy can carry itself.  Since they gave this date and due to other technical analysis (like the Elliott analysis from Caldaro and Vtrader), US markets are very likely to be profitable this Spring and Summer of 2014.

So, the markets won't top early this year as i had suggested (crossing fingers).  The top may come in Sept/Oct when the FED stops buying bonds or if the US markets rally another 15 to 20% against the GDP this year.  A similar bubble happened in 2000 (see graph).


(reference from Vtrader)

This bull markets has been running with positives profits since 2009.  There is no markets in history that runs up and up without a top and drop.  Once this top comes in, a 30 to 50% of market loss is projected.

My trading strategy didn't come as planned.  I finished my 401k at 20.7% up YTD and my broker account is up 15% YTD.  Still, profits are better than nothing.

Merry xmas all and happy new year!

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My trading strategy and gains for 2013

401k = 20.7% up YTD 
Broker = 15% up YTD

How do you trade?

I get this question several times.  How do you trade?  How does it work?  It is very simple.  No science to it.  It is just a simple way like buying a car or a house.  When you want to buy a house or car you buy for the lowest price possible.  You buy at the lowest price so you can use the whatever other money left to buy other things.  The same goes with buying stocks.  You buy low or cheap.  Moreover, when you buy a house, you hope that the price of the house will go up so you can make equity (extra cash) if you sell the house later as the house appreciated in price.  Unfortunately, this does not work for cars most of the time, as they depreciate in value.  But, my whole point is: when you buy stocks, you want to buy them low, until they reach a higher price and then you sell them.  This is how traders play/invest to take profits in Wall Street.

Now, what do you use trade?  You use broker accounts.  All they are doing is helping you be in the middle of Wall Street and you.  Of course, for a small commission.

Is there an edge or a way to know when to buy or sell?  Yes.  It's not 100% but you can stay on the 60 to 80% if you learn how to do it right.  It is said that if you want to be a good trader/investor, you need to win 6 to 8 times out of 10 times.  The other 2 to 4 times are losses.  Now, these losses have to be good losses.  I mean, that if you start seeing a loss on your buy, you get out if your loss hits your stop loss (read Richard Wycoff for more info).

When i make my decisions to buy and sell, i use Elliot Wave theories to guide me through the stages of the markets.  I read volumes to see how much traffic of purchases are trading.  I check Europe and Asia periodically as they can affect the US markets and viceversa.   Fibonacci retracements are great guides too as they can help estimate the course of a trend together with RSI (Relative Strength) and MACD.

Anyway, you can keep going and talking about this stuff.  In regards to my trades, i sold all my BOIL shares for a nice profit to buy me coffee for 6 months.  The next day, it went up to 8.5% and i could have double my wins.  Today is up a little.  Oh well.  You can never win all.

I'm on UGL (Double Bull Gold ETF) as i'm speculating for Gold to go up.  Also, I bought some Double and Triple Bear ETF against the US markets.  I'm hoping for them to decline and crash.  But, it's a tough call as the Long Term trend is up (Bullish).


Laters


My trading strategy and gains:

401k = 20.4% up YTD (0% invested - waiting for drop to past).  Projection by end of year is 24%
Brokerage = 15.3% up YTD (10% invested on S&P double and triple short ETFs and Gold double long ETF) Projection by end of year is 23%

Bit coins break through $1000

I was so close to get in it when it was $400 but got busy and didn't do it because you had to create an account, then verify your checking account, then transfer money from my broker, then get confirmation from CoinBase.  I got lazy and now I missed it : (.  There are still some traders talking about this trade that it will run higher.  But, i won't get on this train this time.  This one is an example of a perfect bubble ready to pop.

Here is the post from CNN:  http://money.cnn.com/2013/11/27/investing/bitcoin-1000/index.html?iid=Lead

Talking about trades, i'm starting to short the main US indices: S&P, DOW and possibly Japan Nikkei.  When i say short, i mean to invest and bet that the indices will drop.  In return, my investment grows.  The investment strategy is called "shorting".  As traders/investors begin to feel a top is near, they buy these short ETFs and funds in the ETF grow.  I'm only testing it to see if the top is in.  I'm buying a little and placing a stop loss at this weeks high on the S&P.  If the US markets break higher, then i sell at a small loss and repeat the test again as i think the medium term top is near.

My BOIL (Natural Gas double ETF) shares are doing fine.  I was able to catch the bottom and it is going up.  But, have to keep an eye as it is not going higher for long.  Natural gas is in a long term depreciation of price.  There is too much gas in the US.  High supply = lower price.  So, what i'm catching right now is a reaction of too much selling with lower prices and some buyers jumping in and bringing prices up for some time until the selling continues.

Laters


My trading strategy and gains:

401k = 20.4% up YTD (0% invested - waiting for drop to past).  Projection by end of year is 24%
Brokerage = 14.8% up YTD (5% invested on S&P double short ETFs and Natural Gas double long ETF) Projection by end of year is 28%

Bit coins and US market top

I almost bought some Bit Coins (virtual currency).  The price shot up from the 300's to the 700's in a few weeks.  Unbelievable!  It has now dropped to the 500's.  Guess i'll have to get on the game.  But, have to be careful.  It is very risky now and the returns (if it goes well) can be very rewarding.

In regards to the US market top I had posted about, we are still waiting for market top next year (not this end of year anymore - crossing fingers).  Tony from Caldaro's site is forecasting for a market top this coming year by early Spring or so.  If not, the markets may get an extension to the 1900 or 2200s (S&P point wise).  This is still good news!  But, it all depends on how the FED printing policies will remain and how the goverment budget spending is taken care of.

For now, i will sit back and try to enjoy the ride until the above gets resolved.  There are many analysts and Elliothicians calling for a Primary wave down that should take the markets for a test down to the 8 to 14% of market loss in the coming weeks or months.  So, i'm going to keep an eye and hope to catch the long ride down and up through the months to come.




My trading strategy and gains:

401k = 20.5% up YTD (0% invested - waiting for drop to past).  Projection by end of year is 24%
Brokerage = 14.8% up YTD (5% invested on double long ETFs and Natural Gas double long ETF)  Projection by end of year is 28%

-- This is Market Analysis, not a recommendation.

Gov. Shutdown and Debt Limit

Well, we finally got our government to open again and the debt limit was again postponed.  I'm glad both parties (dem and rep) got to some agreement otherwise, we would have gone in to some big dodo.  I mean real crap! (housing loosing equities, countries dropping their debts, lots of lay off, i mean frigging chaos, etc).  Anyway, the debt limit was moved for sometime in January i think.  It may be another time to watch out for your investments.  I would not buy a house at this times.  I'm starting to guess what the next bubble will be to initiate the next coming crash of the US markets.  Is it the tapering of the Fed by stopping money printing?  Will it be the crash of Europe (they are kinda shaky; much better but still shaky).  Or will it be the default of US debt in January or at the next postpone date if they do postpone again in say.... March/April?  All right, i don't want to feel like a doomster here.

On the other hand, my 401k is rocking and over 20% now as of today.  I'm getting close to my target of 24% by the end of year.  I bought some longs at the lows of first week of October before the whole government drama.  Google rocked the house today and profited 14% in one day!  The shares topped $1000 per share and i'm reading in the trading community that they may get even higher!  I'll see if i can buy me some GOOG at the next dip.

Laters

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My trading strategy and gains:

401k = 20.3% up YTD (90% invested on large caps).  Projection by end of year is 24%
Brokerage = 16% up YTD (5% invested on double long ETFs)  Projection by end of year is 28%


-- This is Market Analysis, not a recommendation.

My reply against another blogger complaining Caldaro's technical analysis

Erka11 says:

October 11, 2013 at 3:45 am

Tony’s misguidance claims another victim: Juaren has finally seen the light !
A lot of counts from bloggers are in contradiction with Tony’s main analysis.
Tony has completely lost it.
His calls make no sense whatsoever, they are inconsistent.
He counts waves C as abc structures outside of the exclusive triangle formation when it suits him and when he is stuck with a count, in contradiction with all basic EW rules.
He maintains his inate call for P4 and P5 to end in a 3 or 4 months.
He has major waves lasting a few weeks and Intermediate a few months.
All this time he has been praised for correctly deciphering when in fact his great strength is too appear to quickly adjust when he makes a bad call which happens more often than not.
His pivots only work randomly. The latest market end points: 1726 and 1640 are outside of his pivot range.
This site and this method is a fraud and the current market moves are exposing it as such on a daily basis.

Reply

• joseph3000 says:

  October 11, 2013 at 5:18 am

  Wow. That’s deep! I still like Tony tho. Is there anyone out there who is more accurate than Tony? Don’t think so… I’m a OEW graduate too and find this site more helpful than many others. Hope you didn’t miss this rally : ). Remember, this is not a short term/day trading site. Gl Erka

  Reply

The Elliott Wave Theory

The stock market or us markets are a combination of funds, stocks, and many other means of investing.  Many people and institutions from all over the world buy and sell in order to take a profit.  Now, how do you take a profit or how would you know when to take a profit?  There are many platforms, theories and indicators that these "people" or traders/investors use to ride the waves of money flow into the markets/funds/stocks.  There is one theory i found last year that i'd like to share.  I think it is very interesting.  It is the Elliott Wave Theory.

The theory suggest that markets, funds, stocks (national or international), and even industry investments or minerals or anything we use (coffee, gold, etc), move in rhythms or waves to the upside or the downside.  When i say that it/they move, i mean it/they move by price in longer periods of time.  I won't explain in details how the Elliott wave works but you can look it up in Wikipedia or Google.  Read it and you can learn when to take profits.  

Over the past 4 or 6 years i have always interested in investing and growing my own money, my retirement account, my kids schooling, my housing investment.  But, since last year that i found the Elliott wave and other indicators, i can feel that i am now in charge.  I don't need a financial adviser anymore.   I will only need to let the waves ride me through the ups and downs of the economical and political games.  

So, i suggest you read about the theory (there are others but this one is better) and let me give you some other links from these professional analysts.  Most of these analysts are advanced.  They have many years in the us markets trading industry:

http://elliotwavetrader1.blogspot.com/

http://caldaro.wordpress.com
http://www.wavaholic.com/

Laters

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