Japan Nikkei 225 51%
United States S&P 500 Index 29.11%
Global Index GDOW The Global Dow 24.16%
Russia Market Vectors Russia Index ETF -4.5%
China Shanghai SE Composite Index -7.4%Brazil Bovespa Stock Index -15.89%
Peru EPU iShares MSCI All Peru Capped -28.3%
This year was not a good year for emerging markets such as Brazil, Peru, and China. Although, China's gross domestic product (GDP) has been a whooping 7% or so, their indices has been pretty bad. The question is, will the emerging markets turn to the upside in 2014? They can.... but it's not a sure thing. As the global index, and US is forecast-ed to keep going up, emerging markets may be able to get on the same ride on the way up.
Now, this bring me to the reason why i'm posting today. The US markets may keep rising for 2014 all the way. The Federal Reserve Bank announced tapering last week (reducing bond purchases and other stimulus) at 10B per month. They gave a date of expiration until Sept/Oct 2014 and as long as the economy can carry itself. Since they gave this date and due to other technical analysis (like the Elliott analysis from Caldaro and Vtrader), US markets are very likely to be profitable this Spring and Summer of 2014.
So, the markets won't top early this year as i had suggested (crossing fingers). The top may come in Sept/Oct when the FED stops buying bonds or if the US markets rally another 15 to 20% against the GDP this year. A similar bubble happened in 2000 (see graph).
![](https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjzaBunQL01ZewgLtRRzJLENkMA3jlsIAM-T3T_kco6jgr4sq4l0B6HZtTd58R5WxKmBsKR1r2vC9fJh5xs38VIT5SkhbkhCPzaGSc7x-m7iJY5gb5H-o733BiPNQbLN4yYQnPMNvlSxcS1/s1600/marketcaptogdp.jpg)
(reference from Vtrader)
This bull markets has been running with positives profits since 2009. There is no markets in history that runs up and up without a top and drop. Once this top comes in, a 30 to 50% of market loss is projected.
My trading strategy didn't come as planned. I finished my 401k at 20.7% up YTD and my broker account is up 15% YTD. Still, profits are better than nothing.
Merry xmas all and happy new year!
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My trading strategy and gains for 2013
401k = 20.7% up YTD
Broker = 15% up YTD
A lot of counts from bloggers are in contradiction with Tony’s main analysis.
Tony has completely lost it.
His calls make no sense whatsoever, they are inconsistent.
He counts waves C as abc structures outside of the exclusive triangle formation when it suits him and when he is stuck with a count, in contradiction with all basic EW rules.
He maintains his inate call for P4 and P5 to end in a 3 or 4 months.
He has major waves lasting a few weeks and Intermediate a few months.
All this time he has been praised for correctly deciphering when in fact his great strength is too appear to quickly adjust when he makes a bad call which happens more often than not.
His pivots only work randomly. The latest market end points: 1726 and 1640 are outside of his pivot range.
This site and this method is a fraud and the current market moves are exposing it as such on a daily basis.