New market records and update on US market status

The US markets hit new all time records this past week and breaking new levels.  The US was one of the best countries (some may disagree) to invest in stocks, housing, industry sectors, some commodities, mutual funds, etc, this year.  Below, i have some indices for some countries.  These indices measure or can tell you how well this country did financially and the US is on the green side for 2013.

Japan Nikkei 225                                     51%
United States S&P 500 Index                    29.11%
Global Index GDOW The Global Dow              24.16%

Russia Market Vectors Russia Index ETF       -4.5%

China Shanghai SE Composite Index           -7.4%
Brazil Bovespa Stock Index                        -15.89%
Peru EPU iShares MSCI All Peru Capped         -28.3%

This year was not a good year for emerging markets such as Brazil, Peru, and China.  Although, China's gross domestic product (GDP) has been a whooping 7% or so, their indices has been pretty bad.  The question is, will the emerging markets turn to the upside in 2014?  They can.... but it's not a sure thing.  As the global index, and US is forecast-ed to keep going up, emerging markets may be able to get on the same ride on the way up.  

Now, this bring me to the reason why i'm posting today.  The US markets may keep rising for 2014 all the way.  The Federal Reserve Bank announced tapering last week (reducing bond purchases and other stimulus) at 10B per month.  They gave a date of expiration until Sept/Oct 2014 and as long as the economy can carry itself.  Since they gave this date and due to other technical analysis (like the Elliott analysis from Caldaro and Vtrader), US markets are very likely to be profitable this Spring and Summer of 2014.

So, the markets won't top early this year as i had suggested (crossing fingers).  The top may come in Sept/Oct when the FED stops buying bonds or if the US markets rally another 15 to 20% against the GDP this year.  A similar bubble happened in 2000 (see graph).


(reference from Vtrader)

This bull markets has been running with positives profits since 2009.  There is no markets in history that runs up and up without a top and drop.  Once this top comes in, a 30 to 50% of market loss is projected.

My trading strategy didn't come as planned.  I finished my 401k at 20.7% up YTD and my broker account is up 15% YTD.  Still, profits are better than nothing.

Merry xmas all and happy new year!

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My trading strategy and gains for 2013

401k = 20.7% up YTD 
Broker = 15% up YTD