Bit coins and US market top

I almost bought some Bit Coins (virtual currency).  The price shot up from the 300's to the 700's in a few weeks.  Unbelievable!  It has now dropped to the 500's.  Guess i'll have to get on the game.  But, have to be careful.  It is very risky now and the returns (if it goes well) can be very rewarding.

In regards to the US market top I had posted about, we are still waiting for market top next year (not this end of year anymore - crossing fingers).  Tony from Caldaro's site is forecasting for a market top this coming year by early Spring or so.  If not, the markets may get an extension to the 1900 or 2200s (S&P point wise).  This is still good news!  But, it all depends on how the FED printing policies will remain and how the goverment budget spending is taken care of.

For now, i will sit back and try to enjoy the ride until the above gets resolved.  There are many analysts and Elliothicians calling for a Primary wave down that should take the markets for a test down to the 8 to 14% of market loss in the coming weeks or months.  So, i'm going to keep an eye and hope to catch the long ride down and up through the months to come.




My trading strategy and gains:

401k = 20.5% up YTD (0% invested - waiting for drop to past).  Projection by end of year is 24%
Brokerage = 14.8% up YTD (5% invested on double long ETFs and Natural Gas double long ETF)  Projection by end of year is 28%

-- This is Market Analysis, not a recommendation.

Gov. Shutdown and Debt Limit

Well, we finally got our government to open again and the debt limit was again postponed.  I'm glad both parties (dem and rep) got to some agreement otherwise, we would have gone in to some big dodo.  I mean real crap! (housing loosing equities, countries dropping their debts, lots of lay off, i mean frigging chaos, etc).  Anyway, the debt limit was moved for sometime in January i think.  It may be another time to watch out for your investments.  I would not buy a house at this times.  I'm starting to guess what the next bubble will be to initiate the next coming crash of the US markets.  Is it the tapering of the Fed by stopping money printing?  Will it be the crash of Europe (they are kinda shaky; much better but still shaky).  Or will it be the default of US debt in January or at the next postpone date if they do postpone again in say.... March/April?  All right, i don't want to feel like a doomster here.

On the other hand, my 401k is rocking and over 20% now as of today.  I'm getting close to my target of 24% by the end of year.  I bought some longs at the lows of first week of October before the whole government drama.  Google rocked the house today and profited 14% in one day!  The shares topped $1000 per share and i'm reading in the trading community that they may get even higher!  I'll see if i can buy me some GOOG at the next dip.

Laters

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My trading strategy and gains:

401k = 20.3% up YTD (90% invested on large caps).  Projection by end of year is 24%
Brokerage = 16% up YTD (5% invested on double long ETFs)  Projection by end of year is 28%


-- This is Market Analysis, not a recommendation.

My reply against another blogger complaining Caldaro's technical analysis

Erka11 says:

October 11, 2013 at 3:45 am

Tony’s misguidance claims another victim: Juaren has finally seen the light !
A lot of counts from bloggers are in contradiction with Tony’s main analysis.
Tony has completely lost it.
His calls make no sense whatsoever, they are inconsistent.
He counts waves C as abc structures outside of the exclusive triangle formation when it suits him and when he is stuck with a count, in contradiction with all basic EW rules.
He maintains his inate call for P4 and P5 to end in a 3 or 4 months.
He has major waves lasting a few weeks and Intermediate a few months.
All this time he has been praised for correctly deciphering when in fact his great strength is too appear to quickly adjust when he makes a bad call which happens more often than not.
His pivots only work randomly. The latest market end points: 1726 and 1640 are outside of his pivot range.
This site and this method is a fraud and the current market moves are exposing it as such on a daily basis.

Reply

• joseph3000 says:

  October 11, 2013 at 5:18 am

  Wow. That’s deep! I still like Tony tho. Is there anyone out there who is more accurate than Tony? Don’t think so… I’m a OEW graduate too and find this site more helpful than many others. Hope you didn’t miss this rally : ). Remember, this is not a short term/day trading site. Gl Erka

  Reply

The Elliott Wave Theory

The stock market or us markets are a combination of funds, stocks, and many other means of investing.  Many people and institutions from all over the world buy and sell in order to take a profit.  Now, how do you take a profit or how would you know when to take a profit?  There are many platforms, theories and indicators that these "people" or traders/investors use to ride the waves of money flow into the markets/funds/stocks.  There is one theory i found last year that i'd like to share.  I think it is very interesting.  It is the Elliott Wave Theory.

The theory suggest that markets, funds, stocks (national or international), and even industry investments or minerals or anything we use (coffee, gold, etc), move in rhythms or waves to the upside or the downside.  When i say that it/they move, i mean it/they move by price in longer periods of time.  I won't explain in details how the Elliott wave works but you can look it up in Wikipedia or Google.  Read it and you can learn when to take profits.  

Over the past 4 or 6 years i have always interested in investing and growing my own money, my retirement account, my kids schooling, my housing investment.  But, since last year that i found the Elliott wave and other indicators, i can feel that i am now in charge.  I don't need a financial adviser anymore.   I will only need to let the waves ride me through the ups and downs of the economical and political games.  

So, i suggest you read about the theory (there are others but this one is better) and let me give you some other links from these professional analysts.  Most of these analysts are advanced.  They have many years in the us markets trading industry:

http://elliotwavetrader1.blogspot.com/

http://caldaro.wordpress.com
http://www.wavaholic.com/

Laters

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My concerns and strategies of the S&P these days

Week Aug 12th:

In the past days, the US markets has been experiencing a medium size correction.  Markets have topped in around August 2nd with the S&P at 1709.  The S&P is expected to drop around 10%, but we can't tell for sure if this will happen at exactly 10%.  It may be 6, 8, 10, 12, or 14%.  So, the average is 10%.  

Since late July, i have been all cash with my 401k and brokerage account.  I'm waiting for the markets to bottom at around 8% and i'll start buying.  But, one thing worries me.  In May 6 of 2009, the markets when down around 6 to 8% in 1 day.  The drop was part of a major correction called Major wave 2.  This summer, we are experieincing a Major 4 correction.  We are only at the beginning with 3% already down.  I'm going to take the risk and start buying at 1580 and below.  Because, i think this is how deep we'll go.  Or more? 

Week Aug 19th:

I bought some longs on Monday as i think the S&P will bounce a bit upward.  Today, my UPRO and SPXL gave me a 1.2%.  In my 401k, i'd bought Goldman Sach's Small Cap Value.  I should have around 1.5% gains by tomorrow.  I'm only invested around 20% all together as this bounce will be short lived.  After that, we should continue the decline and i'll be ready with my short positions.

My trading strategy and gains:

401k = 16.3% up YTD (33% invested on small caps).  Projection by end of year is 24%
Brokerage = 18% up YTD (15% invested on triple long ETFs)  Projection by end of year is 28%

401k

I talked to a friend last night (I won't say his name for privacy purposes), but we talked about how to allocate a 401k.  The best way to allocate a 401k is to spread your investments in all allocations.  I allocate my 401k differently because i've done this for several years already and i'm familiar with the changes and trends of the US markets.  But, if you are just getting started it you should start with a different approach.  You should "diversify".  It is written on every book about investing and any financial adviser will tell you the same.  When you diversify, you are spreading your investments on safe and risk accounts.  A typical 401k breaks down like this:

Safer: Money Market Accounts:

Safer with little risk: Bonds, Fixed, Mortgage

Medium: Balanced allocations, Large Caps

High: Small Caps

Higher risk: International, Emerging markets

So, you need to spread them out on all of them.  You will make and loose money, but that's how you start.  You will never make money without loosing.  I had a -2% on one of my accounts YTD one time.  This year i have 20% YTD already on that same account.  I've watched my 401k account since, who knows 2001 i think.  I've seen my account in ups and downs many times.  But no more.  After all this years, i can manage to get positive gains YTD.  Last year, i got around 13% YTD on my 401k.  This year is up 16.5% YTD.  My plan this year is to pull a 30% + if possible on my 401k.  We'll see.  I will post more stuff later and how to do it.  Because, know one will tell you when you should take your money out or put you money in when the US rocks or goes to recession.  Did anyone tell you when to sell your house before the housing market broke down in 2008-2009?   

Let me suggest some stuff to get you started.  I had read them and i recommend them to you.

Real Money by Jim Cramer

5 Waves to Financial Freedom by Ramki Ramakrishnan

Read your 401k allocations and call them.  It's free to talk to your 401k advisers.  

Watch Mad Money

Will post more stuff later.  

401k's and Brokerage Accounts

Well, i'm pretty happy today.  I sold all my ETFs (Exchange Traded Funds) and got a 17% gain in a 2 to 3 weeks period.  Really amazing stuff!

Back in late June, i bought the UPRO, SPXL and TQQQ.  They are 3 times bull S&P ETFs.  This means that if the S&P (and if you read my previous comments about what the S&P stands for) went up 6% in 2 to 3 weeks, you make 3 times of that percentage.  It is one of the riskiest investment strategies out there because if it turns against you, you'll want to pull your hair out and cry.   So, I sold these shares today and got a nice profit of 17%.  Now i'm watching the after market data after Ben Bernanke's speech and the markets are rocking again!  I got so close to stay in but i did sale my shares because you can't get too greedy in this game.  You get too greedy and you can loose some.

Now, let's talk about some of the beauties of investing:  401k and brokerage accounts.

Brokerage accounts: They are your best "checking account" if you are an investor or future investor.  Forget the damn checking accounts and savings accounts at the banks..  They are a bunch of scheme accounts from the banks and other institutions promising a misserable .0001 % rate of return.  Set up an brokerage account!  This is what i can do with my account and just found out a few months ago.  You can put money there, let's say 10k and they'll match 100% if i want to borrow money at a 4% APR to invest!  Is that nice?  How much is a credit card APR's?  15, 20, i heard of 27%.  Now, you can't take that matching 100% to spend but you can take your own cash out, let's say 5k and you will still have 10k all together with the left over 5k + the matching 100% = 10k still invested.

401k:  You get exposure to many allocations:  bonds, mortgage, small caps, large caps, international, Europe, Asia and many more.  If you think China is going to rule the world, you buy International Emerging Markets allocations (see you company's 401k).  If you think US will keep rocking, you buy large and small caps.  Now, one of the best freebies from a 401k is your companies match to your investment contribution per year.  Free money!!  I get a 25% match.  There are other lucky ones with an 100% match.

I'm invested on both brokerage and 401k accounts.  You should give it a try.  They are great tools to have and start as early as possible.  It takes some years to get this stuff.  First strategies are to be diversified in your 401k accounts and playing it safe.  Once you start getting the hang of it, you can try the brokerage accounts.

Oh, and by the way, Virginia 529 sucks.  You can only move your money once a year!!!  The tax incentive is not that great than that of 401ks with the ability of moving your allocations more times per week, or month.    My 401k is with Principal and it let's me buy and sell once per day.  Oh i forget!  If you are a first time home buyer : ) use that honey to buy a house!  Free of tax penalty!  Unless the government changed this rule.   : )

Laters.
P.