- JosephApril 13, 2013 at 11:09 PMOK. I missed calculated the top and lost half of my ytd gains by trying to short the markets. For the meantime, this event has tought me that shorting against a bull market and calling a top is too risky since they are 2 powerful forces you should not bet against when they are together. For now, I'm going to sit on the side and be patient and disciplined. I will wait for the next intermediate bottom and buy in increments as the markets decline. Buy the dips. I will then wait for the markets to rally and make lots of gains as I will be buying triple etf funds to ride the way up the hill in May. In the markets, the only way to make money is by making decisions with probabilities. And now I fully agree with the saying that the trend is your friend.Reply
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Hey Joseph. Good comment. Trend is the only friend one should have in this market. Market tends to deceive the majority with its cunning ways. However, if you trade with the trend you are more likely to get bailed out on a wrong entry vs if you enter against the trend.Reply
However, always keep in mind that any counter-trend move can turn into a new trend or new bear market, under the right circumstances. In other words, when majority of investors get confortable with a direction of trend, it reverses. Therefore, one should keep this possibility in mind. -
I agree. But, it's a risk I'm willing to take. It is the probability of the us markets topping and bottoming at the intermediate term level. And with the probability that spx will reach 1650 or more by the end of this year.
Tuesday, April 16, 2013
My Comments of this Recent Market Week at a public blog
Monday, March 18, 2013
Standard and Poor US index
Well. This time i'll write in english. And pardon me for my grammar : ) (like the song form Incubus "Pardon me while i burst"? I think this is what they say :) Anyway, its just late and i don't know what i'm saying. haha.
Let's talk US market stuff. I follow the Standard and Poor index everyday. And i have followed it for the past 5 to 6 years. Every year i read and analyze more and more about it. The S&P market index is one of the most followed index in the world. It's a combination of 500 mostly US companies that have a lot of exposure to the american consumer. And some international too. When ever the american consumer spends money, the S&P 500 makes some gains very often. If you were going to go back and search some stats of the S&P, you would notice the S&P rallied several times during the Christmas seasons. Why? because it is the time of the year where most people spend money to buy gifts and others.
So, now you get an idea of what the S&P is but you can always google it. At this time, what I am doing is researching for other seasonal and historical moments of the S&P tops and bottoms, moves to the upside and downside, crashes and other behaviors of this index. Yes, behavior. The S&P moves accordingly to human investor psychology. Not the human psychology, but the human investor psychology. It is very interesting what i found and i will share this with you all sometime.
P.
Wednesday, March 6, 2013
Bolsa de Venezuela
El presidente Chavez fallecio ayer como ya lo deben de saber. Bueno, no le deseo mala suerte o que mal por el, pero si que jodio mucho a su pais. Lei un articulo en CNN que desde que Chavez anuncio su enfermedad del cancer en 2011 el stock market de Venenuela subio como cohete hasta ahora. Subio 300% en solo este corto tiempo. No suena nada mal. Cada vez que se escuchaba malas noticias de Chavez parece que la bolsa de valores de Caracas aumentaba en valor. Lamemtablemente, como extranjeros que somos no podiamos invertir ahi. No que yo fuera a invertir pero como hubiera sido... hmm. 300% wow!! Estaria pasandola en alguna playita con la family. http://money.cnn.com/2013/03/06/investing/venezuela-stock-market-chavez/index.html?iid=HP_LN
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For english plesase use google translate
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For english plesase use google translate
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